Las Vegas Money Moves
September 30, 2011
I called MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood Thursday evening to discuss his big games for Saturday and he begins by talking about the I-25 rivalry and the Maloof Trophy. I had no idea what he was talking about and asked him to come again.
“What, you don’t want to talk about the big game between my alma matter, New Mexico State, and New Mexico,” Rood said with a chuckle. “We‘ve seen New Mexico (+1) money come in as people think the new coach and attitude of the team will be changed. Anything has to be an improvement from a coach who guided the Lobos to a 2-26 record during his regime.”
The big games I was looking for information on were Alabama visiting the swamp in Florida and Nebraska traveling to Wisconsin for an intriguing Big 10 battle. The pair not only has national championship implications, but also major public appeal as they'll be the two primetime games featured on ABC and CBS.
We get to see Nebraska in their first Big 10 contest on the road playing in a sea of red, while also seeing if Florida is truly as good as they have looked so far. The Gators are 3-0-1 against the spread going against an Alabama squad that has dominated every team placed in front of them, which is why they are a strong 3 ½-point favorite on the road this week.
“They (sharp money) snapped up the 4 ½ right away on Florida and pushed us down, but all the small money has been on Alabama,” said Rood. “We’re already pretty long on parlay money with Alabama and it’s only going to multiply on game day“
“Our day is ultimately going to come down to the results of the two big public sides of Alabama and Stanford and you’d think one of these weeks we’d find some luck on these late games,” Rood said half-jokingly. “It seems like we lose every big college football game played on national television. From 4:00 p.m. (PT) on, we have been getting killed.”
Stanford has been a public favorite each week and has covered all three of its games. They'll try to knock off UCLA this week as a 21-point favorite Saturday night.
Nebraska has only covered one of its four games while Wisconsin has gone 3-1 ATS, but a lot of bettors have the feeling that Wisconsin laying 9 ½-points might be cheap.
“We opened the Badgers minus-9 ½ and they (sharp money) bet it to 10, but then we immediately got Huskers money at 10,” said Rood. “We’ve been kind of bouncing around back and forth and are currently at 10. This is one of those night games we have had trouble with, but we’ve had balanced action, so we’re just hoping it doesn’t land 10.”
The home field advantage plays a key role in why the spread is so highly with two highly ranked teams against each other, but Rood thinks Nebraska may have some trouble.
“The speed of the Wisconsin defense should be able to keep Taylor Martinez from hitting the edges strong. I think we’ll see Nebraska having some difficulties in this one.”
Line Moves of the Week:
Illinois opened as a 6 ½-point home favorites at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book and has been pushed all the way to -9 ½ against Northwestern. Most other books around town have Illinois -10.
Boston College opened as a 1 ½-point favorite at the Wynn for their home game against Wake Forest. The line went the other way with Wake being the favorite and since reaching 2 ½ points. The game is now a PICK giving the Wynn crew a pat on the back for having the right number according to the Sharps.
Rutgers opened -1 at the Wynn for its road game at Syracuse, but action quickly moved the Orangemen to 3-point favorites. The line has since dropped to Syracuse -1 ½.
The Wynn opened Georgia Tech surprisingly low at -6 and it rose to -11 for its road game at N.C. State. The Hilton currently has Tech a 10-point favorite.
One of the Wynn’s biggest disparities from their opener to where it’s currently at now is Connecticut, who opened as an 8-point home favorite against Western Michigan. The Huskies are only -2 ½ now.
The Wynn opened Hawaii as a 2 ½-point favorite at Louisiana Tech and now Tech is showing up -4 ½ at the Hilton.
Middle Tennessee State had a great game last week at Troy and many may have inflated its numbers too high for its home game against Memphis. The Wynn opened MTSU -18 ½, what appears to be a proper number, but it’s now showing -23 ½ at the Hilton after they opened their numbers on Monday at -21.
The Wynn opens their numbers every Sunday at 3:00 p.m. PT, the first betting shop in the world. They have a lot of different opinions from what the market prices end up being. After studying their ratings the first few weeks, they appear to be right on the money with the bulk of the moves as they have come back to their original number.
September 30, 2011
I called MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood Thursday evening to discuss his big games for Saturday and he begins by talking about the I-25 rivalry and the Maloof Trophy. I had no idea what he was talking about and asked him to come again.
“What, you don’t want to talk about the big game between my alma matter, New Mexico State, and New Mexico,” Rood said with a chuckle. “We‘ve seen New Mexico (+1) money come in as people think the new coach and attitude of the team will be changed. Anything has to be an improvement from a coach who guided the Lobos to a 2-26 record during his regime.”
The big games I was looking for information on were Alabama visiting the swamp in Florida and Nebraska traveling to Wisconsin for an intriguing Big 10 battle. The pair not only has national championship implications, but also major public appeal as they'll be the two primetime games featured on ABC and CBS.
We get to see Nebraska in their first Big 10 contest on the road playing in a sea of red, while also seeing if Florida is truly as good as they have looked so far. The Gators are 3-0-1 against the spread going against an Alabama squad that has dominated every team placed in front of them, which is why they are a strong 3 ½-point favorite on the road this week.
“They (sharp money) snapped up the 4 ½ right away on Florida and pushed us down, but all the small money has been on Alabama,” said Rood. “We’re already pretty long on parlay money with Alabama and it’s only going to multiply on game day“
“Our day is ultimately going to come down to the results of the two big public sides of Alabama and Stanford and you’d think one of these weeks we’d find some luck on these late games,” Rood said half-jokingly. “It seems like we lose every big college football game played on national television. From 4:00 p.m. (PT) on, we have been getting killed.”
Stanford has been a public favorite each week and has covered all three of its games. They'll try to knock off UCLA this week as a 21-point favorite Saturday night.
Nebraska has only covered one of its four games while Wisconsin has gone 3-1 ATS, but a lot of bettors have the feeling that Wisconsin laying 9 ½-points might be cheap.
“We opened the Badgers minus-9 ½ and they (sharp money) bet it to 10, but then we immediately got Huskers money at 10,” said Rood. “We’ve been kind of bouncing around back and forth and are currently at 10. This is one of those night games we have had trouble with, but we’ve had balanced action, so we’re just hoping it doesn’t land 10.”
The home field advantage plays a key role in why the spread is so highly with two highly ranked teams against each other, but Rood thinks Nebraska may have some trouble.
“The speed of the Wisconsin defense should be able to keep Taylor Martinez from hitting the edges strong. I think we’ll see Nebraska having some difficulties in this one.”
Line Moves of the Week:
Illinois opened as a 6 ½-point home favorites at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book and has been pushed all the way to -9 ½ against Northwestern. Most other books around town have Illinois -10.
Boston College opened as a 1 ½-point favorite at the Wynn for their home game against Wake Forest. The line went the other way with Wake being the favorite and since reaching 2 ½ points. The game is now a PICK giving the Wynn crew a pat on the back for having the right number according to the Sharps.
Rutgers opened -1 at the Wynn for its road game at Syracuse, but action quickly moved the Orangemen to 3-point favorites. The line has since dropped to Syracuse -1 ½.
The Wynn opened Georgia Tech surprisingly low at -6 and it rose to -11 for its road game at N.C. State. The Hilton currently has Tech a 10-point favorite.
One of the Wynn’s biggest disparities from their opener to where it’s currently at now is Connecticut, who opened as an 8-point home favorite against Western Michigan. The Huskies are only -2 ½ now.
The Wynn opened Hawaii as a 2 ½-point favorite at Louisiana Tech and now Tech is showing up -4 ½ at the Hilton.
Middle Tennessee State had a great game last week at Troy and many may have inflated its numbers too high for its home game against Memphis. The Wynn opened MTSU -18 ½, what appears to be a proper number, but it’s now showing -23 ½ at the Hilton after they opened their numbers on Monday at -21.
The Wynn opens their numbers every Sunday at 3:00 p.m. PT, the first betting shop in the world. They have a lot of different opinions from what the market prices end up being. After studying their ratings the first few weeks, they appear to be right on the money with the bulk of the moves as they have come back to their original number.
